Jays - how I'd bat 'em (2013 early edition)

Well, this is a much different exercise than last year, isn't it?  This is the pre-spring-training edition - despite the comments about most positions being locked down, there are still some important things to see in spring training.  Second base is a big one, but so is the Bautista wrist situation, how Melky will look in the post-suspension period, and whether the left side of the infield with Reyes and Lawrie is as interesting as it looks on paper.  Hope those two can cooperate!  It will also be interesting defensively to see if the shift experiments continue.  But let's focus on offence for a bit.
This year, I would be a bit more keen to platoon, at least to a limited extent.  We'll save that for the bottom part of the lineup, though....

The top 4 (vs. R and vs. L):
Reyes, SS
Cabrera, LF
Bautista, RF
Encarnacion, 1B

Can't resist those two switch-hitters at the top of the lineup.  Great OBPs throughout - with 400 SBs at the top of the order, and a 74% base-stealing success rate batting second.  Lots depends on how Cabrera handles this year and whether he keeps the blistering pace of last year - if he does, this is exciting.  If those two perform and only one of Bautista and Encarnacion performs to expectations (and stays uninjured), there are a lot of runs to be had here.  Close watch in spring and the early part of the season at Bautista vs. lefties.  He has to hit better than .200 (.306 OBP), his 2012 numbers, to keep batting third.  This would be a big (seismic) move for Gibbons, but you've gotta move him down in the order unless those numbers come up.  How much of that was the wrist?  We'll see.  Edwin just needs to keep the power numbers up to stay fourth.

The bottom 5 (vs. R):
Lind, DH
Lawrie, 3B
Rasmus, CF
Bonifacio, 2B
Arencibia, C

For all the debate about Lind, his numbers against right-handers are surprisingly good.  His career slugging against them is the best on the current team (.502; Bautista is .480 and Encarnacion .457).  His OBP against them, while not Bautisa-esque, is comparable to the best guys on the current team (career he's .335 - compare to Encarnacion .332, Cabrera .337, and Reyes .338).  I like him as a five-hitter.

This is a big year for Arencibia both as a handler of pitchers and as a batter.  The franchise has clearly put the chips on him and he needs to step up, but he has lots of ways to do it.  Decent power and good handling of that expensive starting staff will do it - but anything more could get him an All-Star spot.  Pending seeing how that turns out, for me he bats ninth against righties.

The 2B spot is a hot one but I like the idea, at least pending what happens this spring, of platooning Bonifacio and Izturis.  Might be some healthy competition for the spot, but one might grab the job, or the defence could suffer - so careful watching will be required.  I take Bonifacio vs. righties based on his 2012 - but Izturis is better for career numbers.

One thing I like about this set-up is that after the two right-handed bats in the third and fourth spot, this gets me a L-R-L-switch-R progression, with the middle three guys being baserunning threats.  It could work out really effectively.

The bottom 5 (vs. L):
Lawrie, 3B
Davis, DH
Arencibia, C
Izturis, 2B
Rasmus, CF

Lind has to hit the bench vs. lefties.  (No surprise here, but the .264 OBP career (.250 last year) against lefties is too bad to keep him playing.)  This creates more trouble than first appears.  Ideally, I would sit Rasmus as well, but there is not an obvious DH against lefties and I think there's a value to keeping Encarnacion and Rasmus in their defensive positions both ways.  If there were a clear DH candidate, I'd put Davis in CF and sit Rasmus in favour of that chimera... but I don't see it.  So I bat Rasmus ninth and hope his baserunning limits the damage (if he can get on).

Nobody here is a weak link except Rasmus (and maybe Izturis for power, but in the eighth spot that's OK).  Lawrie and Arencibia both take good jumps vs. lefties.  The one pitfall from this proposal is that there's some vulnerability in the later innings once the bullpen gets involved because we have righthanded bats from the third spot through the seventh - but Lind's bat is still on the bench this way and hopefully that gives some pause to the opposing manager.

All told, this exercise heightens the excitement for the new season.  I hope I'm not believing the hype, but this looks like a well-crafted team.  Of course, as we should all be reminding ourselves, they still have to play the games!