So how's he likely to stack up? Well, respectably, but probably not well enough to keep the fans and scribes happy. Let's look at a few numbers and compare them (statistics derived from the numbers at the incomparable baseball-reference.com; full file on request).
BA / OBP / SLG
Jason Bay, first 5 seasons (616 games)
.281 / .375 / .515
Manny Ramirez, first 5 seasons (552 games)
.304 / .393 / .546
Jason Bay, ages 24-28 (same as above)
.281 / .375 / .515
Manny Ramirez, ages 24-28 (717 games)
.322 / .416 / .611
Jason Bay, last three seasons (incl. 2008 to date, 410 games)
.271 / .367 / .488
Manny Ramirez, last three seasons (incl. 2008 to date, 363 games)
.305 / .409 / .547
At this point in his career, Jason ought to be more durable, he hits into fewer double plays, and he's certainly more of a threat on the base paths. However, he walks less and strikes out more (though maybe being in a better lineup will help there). That difference of nearly one hundred points in the age 24-28 slugging percentage is a bit scary - even though he played 101 games more, Manny had nearly 500 more total bases (1616 vs. 1135).
I hope Jason Bay can continue his drive toward Canadian baseball immortality, but I'm not sure this particular move does him that much good. He'd look good in that Jays lineup, though....
*** Update: Jason was the hero with a 12th-inning triple off the Monster; while the Jays managed to blow 6-0 and 8-6 leads (the latter in the ninth with their ace reliever on the mound) to lose 9-8. ***
*** Further update: as of the games of September 6, Jason was .302 / .359 / .500 in 31 games for the Sox; Manny was .403 / .500 / .748 in 34 games for the Dodgers. Whoa. ***
1 comment:
Statistically, the Red Sox gave up more than they received. In these days of free agency, the age of a player (and therefor his long-term value) become less important. Additionally, the Red Sox agreed to pick up a portion of Manny's remaining salary for this year. I believe the number was $7 million! They really wanted him out of Beantown!
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